How To Find a Great Deal in a Volatile Buyer’s Market

Do you ever worry that the winter market is too risky to buy in? It may feel unstable, but winter can open doors that most buyers overlook. Lower competition, motivated sellers, and more negotiation room create conditions that can actually benefit you. With the right approach, you can turn a volatile season into an advantage.

The key is to follow a strategy that guides your decisions and helps you write the strongest possible offer.

Start with three homes and choose your favorite. This step gives your search structure and helps you move forward with confidence. These four principles guide how you shape your offer.

Principle 1: Days on market. Days on market reveal how much room you have to negotiate. If the home is a new listing, your offer needs to be close to the list price or in line with recently sold comparable homes in the neighborhood. Early interest is usually strong.

If the home has been on the market 45 days or more with no price reductions, you gain leverage. In winter, this becomes even more significant. A longer market time often means the seller is more open to a lower, aggressive offer that still has a real chance of being accepted.

Principle 2: Competition. Competition shapes how strong your offer needs to be. If the listing agent says there are one to three offers already, you must write a competitive offer close to or above the list price.

If there are zero offers, you gain flexibility right away. The longer the home sits without interest, the more negotiating power you have. When no one else is writing offers, you can be more strategic and assertive.

Principle 3: Condition of the home. A home’s condition plays a big role in how aggressive you can be. Updated homes in great shape typically sell close to the list price. You can verify this by looking at recently sold comparable homes.

The real opportunity often comes from the “ugly ducklings” in great neighborhoods. These homes need updating, which gives you room to write more aggressive offers and build long-term value through improvements.

Principle 4: Rate each home from one to ten. Use a one-to-ten rating system to stay disciplined and avoid emotional decision-making.

• A home rated seven is one you like, but it isn’t your dream home. This is where you can be aggressive. If you lose it, you won’t lose sleep.
• An eight means you want it, and you’ll be competitive, but you know you still have other options.
• A nine means you really want the home. Expect to offer close to the list price or slightly above.
• A ten is the perfect, forever home. Even if you overpay ten to twenty thousand dollars, it won’t matter in the long run. This is the one you go all in on to secure.

To write a smart offer in a volatile winter market, focus on days on market, competition, the home’s condition, and your personal rating from one to ten. The more homes that fit your criteria, the easier it is to stay confident and write strong offers. But when you find that perfect ten, don’t risk losing it with a lowball offer.

If you want help navigating this market or guidance through each step, you can reach out anytime at (707) 280-5040or email shawn@hermosillogroup.com. I’d be glad to walk you through the process and help you put this strategy to work.